Survey finds almost 74% of respondents think President Trump will have a positive impact on the financial markets while only 40% approve of the job Trump is doing thus far
Convergex, an agency-focused global brokerage and trading related services provider, released the results of its "Take Your Trump-erature" survey, designed to gauge President Trump's possible impact on the financial markets. The survey, which was conducted from February 21, 2017 through February 24, 2017, garnered a record number of responses with some surprising results.
According to the survey findings, 74% of financial industry participants have a positive outlook on the financial markets, even though only 40% of the respondents approve of the job President Trump is doing thus far. However, only 20% of the respondents expect the market volatility (as measured by the CBOE VIX index) to increase more than 25% over the next 4 years, revealing an ongoing complacency about possible dramatic market fluctuations.
"We were surprised at some of the survey findings regarding Wall Street's sentiments of the financial markets while under President Trump's watch," said Eric W. Noll, Covergex CEO and President. "It is clear from the results that most of the respondents feel President Trump will have a positive impact on the near-term prospects of the financial market, even if they don't necessarily agree with his overall vision for the country."
Below is an overview of the key survey findings:
- While only 40% of survey participants give their approval of "Trump the President," almost 74% give him high marks (grade A or B) for his effect on the investment climate for stocks. Moreover, over 57% expect stocks to do better over the next 4 years under a Trump Presidency than if Clinton had won the Presidency (21%).
- Changing tax policy is the most important aspect of Trumponomics to equity markets, according to 54% of respondents. Deregulation came in 2nd (25%) and Infrastructure spending came in 3rd (16%).
- Survey respondents think the equity markets want to see lower corporate taxes (46% ranked this "most important") and lower repatriation rates (29% said that was "most important") far more than lower individual/personal taxes (only 19% said that was "most important" to US equities) or the adoption of border taxes (4%).
- Q4 2017 was the most common expected timeframe (28% of the responses) as to when new tax legislation would pass. Q3 2017 was second, with 23% of respondents.
- Favorite Trump Trade sectors: 92% of respondents said Trump policies will help Financials the most, followed by Energy (89%) and Industrials (84%). Least favored: Healthcare (29%) and Consumer Staples (46%).
- Active over passive: 63% of respondents say the Trump administration will be better for active management rather than passive management (16%).
- Financial industry biggest worries: Congress not passing legislation (31%) and trade/currency war (32%). Respondents were least concerned about company-specific tweets (4%) and Trump's Immigration policy (5%).
Full survey results are available here.
Convergex's Trump-erature Survey was performed via an online survey of financial industry participants. The survey was conducted from February 21 to February 24, 2017, and has a margin of error of ± 10%. Respondents included buy-side firms (asset managers, hedge funds), sell-side firms (banks, broker-dealers), trading venues, service providers and other financial industry participants.
Convergex is an agency-focused global brokerage and trading related services provider that takes on the industry's toughest challenges, from complicated trades to complex businesses. With clients' interests as the top priority, Convergex delivers comprehensive solutions that span global high-touch and electronic trading, options technologies, prime brokerage, clearing, commission management and beyond. Headquartered in New York with a presence in several other locations including Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Orlando, San Francisco and London, the company serves nearly 3,000 clients accessing over 100 global market centers.
Convergex is an agency-focused global brokerage and trading related services provider. In the U.S., Convergex offers products and services through Convergex Execution Solutions LLC (member NYSE/FINRA/NFA/SIPC), of which Convergex Prime Services is a division; Westminster Research Associates LLC (member FINRA/SIPC); and Convergex Solutions LLC, of which Jaywalk is a division. In London, Convergex operates through Convergex Limited, which is incorporated in England and Wales (registered with company number 06262150). Convergex Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) of the United Kingdom. Westminster Research Associates LLC is regulated in the United States by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Westminster provides services in Australia pursuant to an exemption from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 (ASIC Class Order [CO 03/1100]).
Convergex provides brokerage services primarily on an agency basis, but may operate in a riskless principal and/or net trading capacity, and in connection with certain ETF or ADR transactions, may act as principal or engage in hedging strategies. Convergex does not engage in market making or investment banking activities.
The material, data and information (collectively "Convergex Information") that is available from Convergex is intended for institutional investor use only; is for informational purposes only; is subject to change at any time; is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice; and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell securities. Convergex Information is believed to be reliable, but Convergex does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and Convergex assumes no duty to update such information. Clients should read their account agreement(s) and documentation with Convergex carefully as those documents contain important information and disclosures about the products or services covered thereby. Convergex is not responsible for third-party information or services, including market data from the exchanges. (Rev. 02/24/17)