Event Coincides with Publication of CIO WMR’s Industry-Leading ElectionWatch Report
Robert J. McCann, Chairman of UBS Americas, hosted an exclusive client event at the Bushnell Center for the Performing Arts in Hartford, Connecticut last night as part of UBS Wealth Management Americas’ ElectionWatch2016 series. The program is designed to provide clients with unique insights into the 2016 presidential election process, potential outcomes, and the policy and market implications. At the event, former U.S. Senators and Senate Majority Leaders George Mitchell (D-ME) and Trent Lott (R-MS) shared their outlook on the upcoming Democratic and Republican conventions as well as their views on key concerns, including national security and the U.S. economy.
Following the event, McCann commented, “The 2016 Presidential election has, so far, been one of the most interesting and controversial in our country’s history, and we are pleased to host Senator Mitchell and Senator Lott, whose thoughtful conversation delivered valuable insights on the upcoming conventions and the U.S. political system.”
“The ElectionWatch series underscores UBS’s commitment to providing our clients with meaningful and informed perspectives on the issues that matter most to them,” added Tom Naratil, President, UBS Americas and UBS WMA.
In conjunction with this event, WMA’s dedicated Chief Investment Office Wealth Management Research unit (CIO WMR) published the sixth volume of ElectionWatch 2016, a series of industry-leading research reports examining the investment implications of campaign issues and developments of this election season.
Highlights of the report include:
- Despite the preoccupation with the selection of a vice-presidential running mate, the impact on voting results tends to be quite limited. The choice matters only because it positions someone for the role of president at some point in the future and because it conveys an important message about the values a president wants to project. (President Clinton picked Al Gore to reinforce a message of generational change. President Obama picked Joe Biden for the legislative skill he offered).
- Hillary Clinton’s economic proposals will be difficult to implement given the likely opposition of House Republicans to any new tax revenues. If Republicans sweep the White House and Congress, which we consider unlikely, then there would be the potential for more substantial changes to the Internal Revenue Code. But even here, intra-party squabbling and concerns regarding the size of the deficit will result in a limited impact at the macroeconomic level.
- The “never Trump” movement is destined to fail in Cleveland, but we do expect Donald Trump to depart from his usual rhetoric and stick to the teleprompter. All in the hope of defusing opposition among GOP rank and file that are skeptical of his position on free trade and doubt his ability to win the election.
- National polls are largely irrelevant. The Electoral College matters more than whether one candidate is running up the vote total in states already on one political column or the other. Watch the polls in states that will choose the next president: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
The ElectionWatch 2016 event in Hartford is the first of four events that will take place in key cities across the country leading up to the general election.
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