Global co-operative’s messaging traffic data provides a leading indicator of the short-term path of GDP
SWIFT, the financial messaging provider for more than 10,000 financial institutions and corporations in 210 countries, has released the latest SWIFT Index data. The Index, which was announced in Q3 2011, acts as a fact-based, leading indicator of the evolution of the aggregate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of OECD countries.
The current value of the Index stands at 161.3, growing by 9.1% (year-on-year, YoY) for the second consecutive month. This represents a 4-year high since the March 2008.
Based on customer messaging data up to April 2012 and using its validated methodology, the SWIFT Index points to a recovery of the OECD economies:
- 2.1% growth in Q2 2012 compared to Q2 2011 (a “nowcast” for the current quarter)
- 2.2% growth for Q3 2012 compared to Q3 2011 (a “forecast”).
Following the slowdown of Q4 2011, the April update reinforces the trend of moderate expansion taking place in the OECD countries both for the current quarter and for the following quarter.