There are volumes of academic research and commercial solutions regarding PD estimation. However, there has not been such progress in post-default recovery estimation due to data limitation. The default data is scarce, and collecting it is the most challenging aspect of any PD modeling. Tracking all post-default activities and recording the recovery value when the company has emerged from default can often take a few years to complete. As a result, there is only minimal academic research on recovery modeling. However, a report published earlier today by Standard & Poor's Risk Solutions, titled "The Relationship Between Default Rates And Recovery," contends that, over time, there is a "negative" relationship between PD and speculative-grade post-default recovery values (i.e., the higher the default rate, the lower the recovery rate, and vice versa). The article's conclusions are based on data collected from Standard & Poor's CreditPro® version 7.5 and Standard & Poor's LossStats® Database version 1.7.
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