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Prometeia’s iDream: a new tool to estimate monetary policy effects

Prometeia, Italy’s premier risk management consultancy firm and financial software developer, will participate in the 10th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE) at the University of Seville, Spain on 9-11 December.

Prometeia will present iDream (International Data-Rich Environment Augmented Model), one of its latest proprietary tools aimed at estimating the domestic and international effects of conventional (CMPs) and unconventional monetary policies (UMPs, i.e. asset purchase programs and “helicopter money”) in eleven advanced and emerging countries – a new econometric framework in a data-rich environment to better infer and analyze interest rate scenarios.

“In today’s context it is crucial to monitor the exposure of the main asset classes to several systematic risk factors,” said Lea Zicchino, Head of Prometeia’s Markets and Financial Intermediaries Analysis unit. “In iDream a set of unobservable risk factors (such as “economic cycle”, “monetary policy”, etc.) are elicited from a database of more than 500 macro-financial observable indicators and brought together so we are able to understand the international transmission mechanisms of financial shocks.”

Among Prometeia’s key findings:

  • UMPs have been generally more effective in sustaining domestic business cycles and inflation rates in the United States, whereas they seem less effective in the Euro Area
  • Spillover effects are larger for UMPs, and in particular from US to emerging countries; the US economy appears more resilient to UMP shocks originating in the Euro Area
  • Among EMU countries, “Helicopter money” appears preferable as a boost to output and inflation compared to other non-standard measures, but only in the shorter term.

With over 40 years of experience in economic research, quantitative analysis and model development, Prometeia is a global provider of consulting services and software solutions focused on Risk & Performance Management. With over 600 industry experts, we serve over 200 financial institutions in 20 different countries, through a consolidated network of foreign branches and subsidiaries located in Europe, Africa and Middle East.