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Prolonged Multi-Year Global Economic Expansion Expected Says BNY Mellon's Chief Economist Richard Hoey

Next Recession in U.S. Likely Postponed Until After 2016 Presidential Election

With monetary policy likely to remain supportive of economic expansion for an extended period of time, BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey expects a prolonged multi-year global economic expansion, according to his most recent Economic Update.

"In the short run, the global economy has been in a subcycle of slower growth within its sustained expansion," says Hoey. "This is due to a combination of factors, including the final months of the recession in the overall European economy, this year's fiscal drag in the U.S. and some rebalancing in China. However, we expect acceleration in global economic growth near the end of 2013 that will significantly strengthen throughout 2014.

Other report observations include:

  • "Bottom of the Saucer" in Europe - Hoey expects the overall European economy to hit the "bottom of the saucer" in the last half of 2013. He expects a gradual saucer-shaped pattern in European economic activity rather than a V-shaped or U-shaped recovery and is hopeful that the European recession will end later this year.
  • Next Recession in U.S. Unlikely Until After Next Presidential Election - With the Federal Reserve likely to continue its easy monetary policy and the unlikelihood of substantial inflationary pressures soon, Hoey expects the next recession in the U.S. is likely to be postponed until after the next Presidential election in November 2016. Next year, Hoey expects a faster pace of growth in the U.S. economy, probably 3% or more.
  • No Hard Landing in China - Chinese policymakers appear to accept that the deceleration of trend economic growth is unavoidable says Hoey. Hoey does not expect a "hard landing" in China but rather a sustained economic expansion at a somewhat decelerated pace.