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Moody’s Analytics Develops Detailed Economic Forecasts Based on the Federal Reserve’s 2013 CCAR Scenarios

Moody’s Analytics today announced it has developed detailed economic scenarios for the US, states, and metropolitan areas consistent with the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive and Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) scenarios. Projections consistent with the CCAR scenarios are available for a wide range of variables, including household credit conditions, housing activity, mortgage lending, commercial and industrial lending, interest rates and equity prices. These scenarios will help banks and other financial institutions execute their regulatory stress tests by providing a consistent set of scenarios covering a full range of detailed variables.

“As we approach 2013, US regulators have made it clear that stress testing has become a key component of the supervisory assessment process for the nation’s largest financial institutions,” said Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics.

“By using our advanced scenario forecasting techniques and extensive databases, we were able to expand the 2013 CCAR scenarios and provide banks with a complete set of economic scenarios that they can tailor to their specific stress testing exercises,” Zandi added.

Moody’s Analytics suite of macro and regional economic forecast models are used to develop CCAR scenarios for more than 1,500 indicators at the US national level, as well as comprehensive CCAR scenarios for each US state and metropolitan area. These include forecasts for Case-Shiller House Price Indexes as well as the granular data on US consumer credit conditions provided in

Moody’s Analytics CCAR scenarios are available through several forecasting services, including the US Macro/Financial Database, US State and Metro Alternative Scenarios, Case-Shiller House Price Indexes forecasts, and CreditForecast.