HONOLULU, April 1, 2003: Kamakura Corporation reported today that all three credit models available under the KRIS-cr Kamakura default probability service showed excellent anticipation of the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing today by Fleming Companies, Inc. (NYSE: FLM). The KRIS-cr default probability service includes a proprietary Kamakura implementation of the Merton model default probabilities and newer "reduced form" and hybrid credit models developed by Professor Robert Jarrow, Kamakura's Managing Director for research.
"The 3.37% default probability recorded for Fleming Companies by the KDP-jc Jarrow-Chava Kamakura Default Probability was the highest ever recorded since 1989 for Fleming Companies and was more than five times the average default probability over the last 14 years" noted Dr. Donald R. van Deventer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
"The KDP-ms Merton Structural model default probability was within 2 basis points of its all time high for Fleming Companies and was also running about five times its average for the last 14 years of Fleming Companies data" added Dr. van Deventer. "The hybrid Jarrow-Merton model was also at its all time high. We believe the multiple models approach Kamakura has taken to credit assessment is essential both to 'best practice' management of credit risk and to meeting the requirements of Basel II, the New Capital Accords proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision."